Protecting the Human Race

by Bradley Knockel

Many of the links below are from the Kurzgesagt YouTube channel. Can we trust them? I struggle with finding what I consider to be objective sources, and I hope to at least get close to the facts.

Interestingly, the human brain is rarely persuaded by facts. This is a very serious limitation that we must all think about in order to overcome it! I dream of a world where the solutions to problems are actually implemented. In this world, we would all understand the solutions and therefore appreciate and enjoy the efforts and rewards, and a healthy fact-based debate fueled by curiosity will continue.

Universe killers

Threats to all complex life on Earth

Other serious concerns

This is a very incomplete list. There are many more concerns that the next sections may address.

Overpopulation

Humans are in a predicament regarding technological progress and sustainability. Human progress is inevitable and permanent because (1) our species has always attempted to achieve "the impossible" even if long-term great risk exists and (2) the population rise caused by progress causes an irreversible situation in that many people would die if we would revert back to the way life was. Population and infrastructure have exponentially grown (as has mining, plastic production, inappropriate agriculture turning fertile land into deserts, and chemicals in our atmosphere) suffocating the ecosystems on our planet. The question is, can we find new sustainable methods of obtaining materials, food, and energy and find new sustainable methods for disposing of waste before the planet runs out of resources, clean air, and healthy ecosystems? If the current manmade Holocene extinction event causes the planet to undergo something like a global ecological collapse, will human population drop occur via starvation, disease, or wars? Which people will be the ones to die? Here are some Wikipedia articles about world energy consumption and overpopulation. The world has never seen such numbers of human beings, so these times are unprecedented.

I generally am not worried about something just because my naturally small-minded and weak human brain feels offended or scared. I value thinking globally on longer time scales because we now live in a global world even though our brains are not meant for these times. Regarding overpopulation, we must think in the long-term and not always get what we want in the present.

When I look around the world, I see beauty in nature and in humanity, but I also am highly annoyed with human adults. To quote The Matrix: "Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You're a plague, and we are the cure." This might be an insult to cancer! But seriously, we need to do better.

Let's set the stage with some history. Agriculture allowed human population to increase greatly. Interestingly, looking at bones of people before and after the rise of agriculture, people were healthier before. Then, the industrial revolution and cities allowed huge population rise, and disease, filth, and misery became the norm. Population growth was a selfish and necessary thing. Your family and country needed high numbers to fight off others to control resources. How is this very different from cancer cells or virus replicating?

Recently, technology has finally allowed the quality of life to increase perhaps above the levels of nomadic times. Certainly we are living longer than those times. Human suffering still exists, but it is quickly reducing (though not quickly enough in my opinion!). For the next several decades, limited resources aren't really an issue on the global scale (until we use them up), so I predict that this quality of life will continue for a while. Giraffes, elephants, and tigers will see their habitat disappear, but humans will have quality of life for many more decades. But do we want to live in a world where we don't even have room for giraffes?

I look around at the problems the world is facing, and they can all be improved (sometimes fixed!) by slowly reducing population. Taking COVID-19 as an example, pandemics are much worse in high population density (and poverty causes faster spread of disease). But here is where things might get tricky: which family or country should lead in reducing population? Luckily, educated families and countries already are leading the way! So let's educate the world! To lower population, it is especially important to educate women. Why can't knowledge save us? Why can't we overcome the ancient programming of our brains to make the modern world a permanently good one?

What should our population goal be? From what I can find, 9 billion is the certain max when we run out of non-renewable energy sources decades from now, so, at 8 billion, we really should at least stop growing the population, especially as global warming reduces the population capacity of Earth. But why reach the certain max? Why not instead aim for health and happiness? 4 billion is likely safe in the long term. 2 billion allows for everyone to be comfortable. I see no need to go below 2 billion. More people means more progress towards things like curing disease, but why do we need fast progress if everyone is already happy and there are not too many of them that can get sick? In fact, overall fewer people will die with a small happy population because there will be more progress per capita. My main concern is that I want humans to leave Earth before the Sun cooks it and to leave the Solar System before the Sun dies, so 2 billion is a good minimum number.

We are not playing God by planning and shaping our world. If this is playing God, then humans have been doing it since agriculture and since our first LEGOs as children, and we have been behaving as a very cruel, arrogant, and short-sighted god.

As for how to reduce population, this is where it gets tricky. We would have to slowly reduce population because less kids means fewer people to run the world when we are all old and need to be cared for. We can either (1) make two-children laws with harsh consequences or (2) solve many of the world's problems allowing for all people (especially females) to be educated enough to make good decisions. Educating people, especially females, has been shown to greatly help! I have hope that technological progress will solve most technological problems allowing for a global standard of living that allows for everyone to become educated and maintain no more than the current population. But we must invest in sustainable technologies before we run out of time!

Even though I choose to have hope, I am worried about how scientific progress has been getting diminishing returns in recent decades. Humans are investing more and more money to get the same or less total results. Experiments and technology are getting so complicated that troubleshooting issues is becoming slower and slower. While improvements of current technology will of course continue, newer technologies might take centuries to develop. Fusion power would be great, and there could be some quick breakthroughs that we must keep looking for, but I feel it would be wise to not plan on breakthroughs. As a scientist, I would like to say that science will allow the current population to continue for centuries, but how could I know this?

The way I see it, the whole point of the wild freedoms in the US (for example, we can openly carry guns in public—and the cost of these gun laws are very high murder rates)—is to generate a culture of freely trying the impossible. I sure hope that there are still "impossible" discoveries and inventions that can be accomplished.

Ourselves!

Our own ignorance is the greatest threat to ourselves and the world. I think everyone must agree that to harm society without personally benefitting is irrational. There are many people in the US who refused to wear masks during the COVID-19 crisis after the CDC recommended that at-least-cloth masks be worn. Refusing to wear a mask is literally killing immunocompromised people and harming the economy, and you only slightly benefit by not wearing a mask in terms of comfort, which is not a benefit if you contract COVID-19. I am a huge fan of protecting the economy, so let's follow the simple safety rules to control the spread of the disease so that the economy can be sustainably reopened (anything to reduce R0 helps!). Why are people harming their country so deeply just so they aren't inconvenienced to wear a mask? Ignorance. Ignorance is certainly a great threat.

There are countless examples of ignorance causing harm...
  • In high school, I believed in various quackery: ch'i, organic farming, non-GMO food (though various corporations being bad probably isn't quackery), and filtering US water. To my defense, I was young, the Internet was brand new, and many of these lines of thinking aren't completely incorrect. Even after college, I once got tendonitis quite badly in my ankles and, after extensive Internet research, thought that rest was very important. It wasn't until my Mom dragged (carried?) my adult self to the doctor that I learned that strengthening my ankles in a healthy way was what I badly needed to cure my tendonitis after I allowed them to become very weak from prolonged rest. I was ignorant.
  • When Arizona governor Doug Ducey blocked mayors from requiring people to wear masks during the COVID-19 crisis (causing hospitals to become full), some of the people who went into public buildings without masks blamed the governor for their choice. They were ignorant of their responsibility to wear a mask and of their responsibility to not blame others for their actions. Would these people stab people if stabbing was legal? Would they go along with the Nazi Party if they were living in Germany before and during World War II? I sort of understand a freedom-obsessed person saying that the government shouldn't require people to not spread disease, but I will never understand an individual choosing to spread disease and shut down economies, and I despise the attitude of not taking responsibility for one's actions.
By the way, I don't really understand keeping the government out of forcing people to wear masks because (1) businesses that try to kick people out for not wearing masks are met with violence, and (2) seatbelt laws exist, and unlike wearing masks, wearing a seatbelt doesn't prevent you from killing other people.
  • In the middle of 2021, when much of the world was desperate for COVID vaccines, the US witnessed the absurd battle to get various large groups—the immoral, the narcissists, and those who need help understanding the issues—vaccinated so that life could return back to normal and so that hospitals could stop being in constant danger of filling up. The immoral were those who wouldn't get the vaccine simply because no one had made them do it yet. I call them the immoral because they are worse than the torturers in the famous Milgram experiment—and perhaps worse than the Germans who obeyed the Nazis and who inspired the Milgram experiment—in that they don't just mindlessly obey; they want someone to tell them what to do, which is scary. They never learned responsibility, empathy for society, risk management, or how to be motivated internally, though it is never too late to learn. On the other extreme are the narcissists who refused to be told what to do and would actively find conspiracy theories and protest groups that supported their choice to be uniquely allowed to destroy lives. Luckily, capitalism motivated the immoral when employers, events, and insurance companies started requiring people to be vaccinated. As for the narcissists, there isn't much to be done to help them. However, there are plenty of people who just need to have emotional conversations with people they trust to feel that they have been listened to and that their doubts are understood. These people clearly don't value scientific, long-term, or statistical thinking—perhaps because they have been made to feel stupid from attempting this in the past—so explaining the logic of vaccines is not the strategy to take. Instead, they respond to the emotional argument of how safety, freedom, and helping society are better than asphyxiation and death. Only about 15% of US citizens are the narcissists who believe that the vaccine is bad, but these 15% have put doubt in other people's minds and have prevented common sense rules like mandatory COVID vaccines to enter a school—a rule no different from having to wear seatbelts or having to get other non-COVID vaccines before entering schools.
  • A brief glance at the Middle East reveals how extremism poisons civilized society. The US also has extremism as the two political parties move farther apart as the social media "filter bubble" increases our ignorance. Once the majority of citizens become sufficiently ignorant, a representative democracy cannot exist. The Internet is making smart people smarter and has a lot of quackery ready for those who do not know how to ask the right questions.
  • Instead of coming from a position of strength, self love, and a spirit of giving, many people have kids because they are broken. Parents may want somebody to love them, somebody to make up for their mistakes, or just want kids because it's expected.

Extremism cannot be removed by ignoring the extremists. The tribes/denominations in the Middle East get power at the cost of ignoring the other tribes/denominations, which always propagates the cycle of extremism. However tempting it is, we must not do anything like rob anti vaxxers of their right to vote, even though it would get rid of both conservative and liberal extremists all at once from the voting pool. Anti-vaxxer tactics would just become more extreme. Unlike children and felons who typically cannot vote, the narcissists who are anti vaxxers just want to feel like they are better than everyone else, not worse, so they would act out even more. We must never believe what they say, but we must not humiliate them more than we must. We must treat them like any other human beings. The road to a healthy mind is slow and cannot be forced.

How do we fix ignorance? Shame or mockery does not work. It makes people fight harder. One thing that works is leading by example or sharing why you personally do what you do without attacking other choices. For those wonderful people who are still open to learning, education is the solution.

While I believe that controlling overpopulation helps all other global problems, there is something that fixes overpopulation and other things such as our personal lives: education. By education, I certainly mean school, but I also very much mean emotional and experiential learning that occurs outside of school, like journaling and learning from any wise members of our families!

As a science person, I see great value to science education, including political science, economics, and psychology. If people could learn how to think about the larger systems they live in, they would all have worn masks during the COVID-19 crisis, vaccinate their children against the measles, not get their news from social media, etc. That is, people will make better decisions with information once they can process their emotions enough to act rationally.

As a human being, I see great value to English class. Here, we can learn to write, reflect, and journal. By being exposed to many different perspectives, we can start to figure out who we are and who we want to be. We can learn to see the world as our neighbors, victims, and enemies see it. I believe that most (all?) of human actions and beliefs are rooted in feelings and emotion. It is vital that we all process (work through) our feelings and emotions, and stories help us do that. Everyone doing this would solve many of the worlds problems as irrationality and internal barriers would be greatly reduced. I work through my emotions by journaling approximately every other day, and I highly recommend it. Before that, I was blind to things, and I didn't know I was. After I started journaling, some great things happened: I broke up with my girlfriend of 7 years, I started reconnecting with people I had written off, and I made it through grad school. Please share your feelings at whatever stage they're at with someone and/or, if you're like me, journal. Our feelings will be different depending on our priorities and life experiences, and that's great! All feelings are valid! Not all actions are good, but processing all emotions is how we can get better actions. Hopefully, in addition to emotional development, a good English class will teach us technical skills as well: how to question informative texts for their logic and reliability, write concisely about technical topics, and writing in various contexts!

I don't mean to shame anyone who doesn't like school. I never cared for English class due to its tendency to reward writing pages of meaningless yet pretty-sounding bullshit and due to us reading antiquated fiction stories that I had no say in. I still made sure I learned how to write well, though open-ended writing took me a while to figure out. I'll certainly make sure that reading is a large part of my kids' lives starting at a young age because an exposure to reading at a young age is very helpful for becoming educated. Also, in English class, I learned a lot of types of fiction that I don't like, which is also a valuable experience, though I honestly don't think it was worth the cost. I hope English classes have improved by reading more relevant texts (not forcing us to read Shakespeare's plays!) or by just watching movies or reading short stories instead of forcing everyone to read stupid huge long novels. I didn't care for English class, but I learned enough from it to help shape my life. Similar to my dislike of English class, my wife never cared to take any more science classes than required because she doesn't much care about the physical details of how things work, but she learned enough about science to certainly believe science, and many of the elementary students she teaches look forward to science because of how fun she makes it! Feel free to have your favorite subjects and ways of learning, but learn. It may be hard to see in the short-term, but learning is of great importance to you and the world.

As for people not wearing masks during the COVID outbreak, having completed more school does not greatly increase a person's odds of wearing a mask! Instead, people don't wear a mask for often silly reasons like not wanting to appear weak or, as a response to stress, wanting to return to a comfortable way of life. I conclude that emotional education is what the US is in desperate need of. We must be able to process our emotions else we are enslaved by them causing irrationality and ignorance.

At the very least, children must have as many caring adults in their lives as possible to prevent people being on the very lowest end of the antisocial spectrum. If it weren't for the very worst people, there wouldn't be dictators, there would be many fewer cops and lawyers and prisons, the need for complicated and expensive security would not exist, recycling would not be regularly contaminated and thrown out, and there would be fewer wildfires, very little litter, nowhere to get drugs like meth and heroin and cocaine, etc. Most people are mostly good! We all are partly bad! But we should understand that the worst do a lot of damage.

What society needs to do to maintain a global population that can achieve a comfortable standard of living

Global problems are a relatively new challenge for humans to solve. Global problems need international solutions. Luckily, the scientific community is good at collaborating internationally. Scientists just need the funding! Sometimes, private industry can find enough money. Regardless, individuals and communities will play a key role in inspiring politicians and entrepreneurs to make the necessary changes. Personally, even if some countries or the majority of voters do the wrong thing, I want to be able to one day tell my grandkids that I was smart about trying to prevent the global crises.

We individual humans can do our part

Is there anything individuals can do? Yes, we can make smart decisions by being well informed. But knowledge can do harm before it does good. From my experience, knowledge often comes in three steps: (1) an oversimplified or wrong story mistakenly given to young children, (2) the moral superiority and extremism of a young adult who starts to learn that reality is different from what they were once told, and (3) the balanced mind of an educated, experienced, and wise adult. The second step is where knowledge can do harm, and the final step is never fully reached, so keep in mind that making mistakes is part of the endless learning process! Please do your own thorough research before making any huge changes, but I recommend that we all do little life experiments when we can!

True changes must occur for the entire system, so voting to protect humanity is extremely important, but our personal choices can motivate the larger system to change and can make us wealthier, happier, and more involved. Where do each of us start? Perhaps find the things that you would most want changed in the world, then think about what you enjoy doing, and go from there.